← Magitek Games NorCal Regionals
Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at Magitek Games NorCal Regionals
decks
3
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
7-9-0
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
40.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1149
· median 1195
· range 1055–1198
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1188
Q3 1413
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 29.8% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 32.2% | -10.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Water Allies | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
